He once thought he could topple Kagame, now he lives with fear of an imminent attack by Rwanda

Evariste Ndayishimiye of Burundi and Paul Kagame of Rwanda

President Evariste Ndayishimiye's fear of an imminent attack by Rwanda is increasingly turning into paranoia. With every popular speech he delivers, he discusses an imminent Rwandan armed attack, a subject that has become a regular feature in his public speeches and a source of concern for many citizens. The atmosphere in Burundi has become increasingly tense as the president's rhetoric intensifies, depicting a nation on the verge of war. His declarations are not merely political bravado; they resonate with a population that has endured the horrors of conflict and now faces the threat of renewed violence.

With the casual carelessness that he is notoriously known for, he openly threatens to retaliate without warning, even if it means erasing Kigali from existence in the blink of an eye. Such statements are not only alarming but also reveal a troubling mindset that favors aggression over diplomacy. The president's readiness to make such exaggerated threats indicates a deep-seated paranoia regarding Rwanda's intentions, reflecting a broader narrative of regional hostility that has afflicted Central Africa for decades.

"In just two hours, it will be over between us," he proclaimed in his recent outbursts, a chilling statement that underscores the urgency he perceives regarding the supposed threat from Rwanda. His latest tirade occurred on Sunday, March 24, 2025, where General Evariste Ndayishimiye once again displayed his fixation on an attack allegedly orchestrated by Rwanda from the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The mere mention of Rwanda seems to ignite something primal within him, a mix of fear and aggression that influences his leadership style and decision-making process.

"We know that Rwanda is attempting to invade us via the DRC under the guise of the Red Tabara rebels and the M23. But we tell them that if an attack on Bujumbura occurs via the city of Uvira, we will retaliate by attacking Kigali from Kirundo," declared Evariste Ndayishimiye, his voice filled with defiance. This declaration is loaded with implications, as it not only reveals his strategy but also exposes the fragile state of regional relations, where accusations and counter-accusations have become commonplace.

This tirade is rich in significance. First, because it reflects the Burundian president's full awareness of the boomerang effect of the armed conflict between the M23 and the Congolese army and its proxies. The complex web of alliances and hostilities in this region complicates matters further, as the interplay between various armed groups creates a volatile environment that can erupt into violence at any moment. it is this complexity he failed to grasp when he deployed his army near Goma to fight against the M23. Evariste's statements are not just bluster; they are a calculated attempt to assert dominance and rally support among his constituents, who may feel increasingly vulnerable in the face of external threats.

By deploying his 20,000 troops to face the M23 in support of his friend Félix Tshisekedi, Evariste Ndayishimiye bet on the victory of Kinshasa and its supporters. His gamble was fueled by the allure of financial support from Tshisekedi, the Congolese president, who promised him monetary assistance in exchange for military cooperation. However, the outcome has been disastrous for Evariste Ndayishimiye, as his army was stripped of its resources and his confidence was shattered. He now finds himself in a precarious position, surrounded by enemies and burdened by the weight of his own miscalculations. He is therefore both surrounded and culpable, a leader whose decisions have led to a precarious state of affairs. He will pay the price, it goes without saying, as the consequences of his actions continue to unfold.

But, on the other hand, Evariste Ndayishimiye is aware of the M23's unstoppable advance towards South Kivu and, of course, Uvira, which borders Bujumbura via Lake Tanganyika. This geographical proximity heightens the sense of urgency and danger, as the potential for conflict looms ever larger. The situation is further complicated by the historical context of the region, where past grievances and ethnic tensions continue to shape the narratives of conflict and cooperation.

Given that the FARDC counts among its allies the FDLR, historically composed by elements responsible for the genocide perpetrated against thousands of Tutsis in Rwanda in 1994, and that the Burundian president or the CNDD-FDD regime has never hidden its connections to this genocidal rebel group, Evariste Ndayishimiye is firmly convinced that the same causes will have the same effects. He sees the FDLR as a potential ally in a conflict against Rwanda, despite their dark past, illustrating the complexities of the alliances formed in this tumultuous region.

That Kigali will keep a close eye on the route of the genocidaires in disarray is a given. Burundi, now the FDLR's base, is therefore more than ever in the eye of the Rwandan storm, as the threat of retaliation hangs in the air. Evariste takes the lead and calls on his country's national opinion early on to vilify Rwanda. This tactic aims to unify public sentiment against a common enemy, yet it also risks escalating tensions further, as the rhetoric of aggression can easily spiral into actual conflict. Except that Kigali remains firm in its position and never responds to the Burundian leader's menacing rhetoric. This is also its quiet strength, one might say, as Rwanda chooses to maintain a strategic silence, allowing Evariste's words to hang in the air without direct rebuttal, perhaps biding its time while observing the unfolding situation with calculated patience.